In This New Phase of India-Pak Relations, Bludgeoning Kashmir Is Not the Answer

After India’s air strikes on terror training camps in Pakistan on Wednesday morning, it is clear that we are entering a new and an as yet unclear phase of India-Pakistan relations. Since the 1980s, India has suffered at the hands of Pakistan-backed terrorists. There should be no doubt that despite claims of being religious fundamentalists, they are, in reality, cannon fodder for the Pakistan Army – a low-risk, low cost machine to keep India off-balance.

New Delhi has now made it clear that there are limits to forbearance and has struck at these terrorists decisively, overturning its policy of not hitting at camps inside Pakistan. Indeed, it has struck at the headquarters of the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and the Jaish-e-Mohammad.

Separately, it has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty. While it is known that India lacks the infrastructure of canals and dams to halt the flow of waters, it does have the capacity of using existing run-of-the-river dams on the rivers that flow to Pakistan to disrupt water flows to Pakistan. And in recent days, it has been demonstrating this disruptive capacity, which will without doubt cause some grief in Pakistan.

There is a third and key element in this which is Kashmir. India may have had to restrain itself with regards to the IWT or its military strike. But nothing constrains its actions in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, it has the full freedom to make and execute policy there.

The region has been described by as Pakistan’s “jugular vein” by its Army Chief General Asim Munir recently. Pakistan has long obsessed about what is now the Jammu and Kashmir. It has launched wars on India to grab it and currently conducts a long running proxy war using jihadi terrorists to destabilise and capture it.

The attack by Pakistani jihadis in Pahalgam was aimed at undermining the official Indian narrative that normalcy had returned to Kashmir since the derogation of Article 370 and the former state's demotion into two Union Territories. As it is, the pattern of attacks in the last two years by highly trained groups in the periphery of the Valley suggested that the terrorism was not quite under control. And the reality is that it is not.

At the operational level, the government identified the three terrorists involved as Adil Hussain Thoker, a Kashmiri, as well as two Pakistanis. In what was clearly an overreaction, it destroyed the homes of ten alleged militants, including Thoker. This, along with the detention of over 1,500 people for questioning, suggested that the authorities were really in the dark about the whereabouts of the perpetrators of the attack.

The public response in Jammu and Kashmir to the Pahalgam terror attack has been marked by widespread condemnation, grief and solidarity. Kashmiris across the Valley region, particularly in towns and cities like Srinagar, Pulwama, Shopian, Pahalgam, Anantnag and Baramulla, held protests and candlelight vigils to denounce the attack. Demonstrators expressed anger, calling the killings a blow to "Kashmiriyat", and shops and businesses shut down in solidarity, and newspapers published black front pages to mourn the victims.

On April 25, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq condemned the civilian killings during his Friday sermon at Srinagar’s Jamia Masjid, with a minute of silence observed for the victims. The Jammu and Kashmir assembly, led by chief minister Omar Abdullah, passed a resolution on April 28, expressing shock and anguish, condemning the attack, and resolving to fight against efforts to disrupt communal harmony. A two-minute silence was observed to honour the victims.

More than political and religious leaders, local Kashmiris demonstrated remarkable solidarity by offering immediate assistance to tourists. Hotels provided free shelter, taxi drivers offered free transport, and locals opened their homes to ensure tourists’ safety.

Despite the local outpouring of support, there were reports of attacks on Kashmiri students and workers in other parts of the country. This prompted concerns about a broader anti-Kashmiri backlash. Leaders like Abdullah and former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti urged the Union government to distinguish between terrorists and civilians to avoid alienating innocent Kashmiris during anti-terror operations.

Clearly, the attack is a moment in contemporary Kashmir where people have spontaneously responded to a terrorist outrage with sympathy and support. This has been evident in the on-the-ground reports of TV reporters and anchors like Rajdeep Sardesai and Barkha Datt in the last few days.

The problem is that the government does not seem to see this and is persisting in counter-terrorism tactics that are bound to alienate the locals. What was the point of blowing up Thoker’s house which he had reportedly left in 2018 and which was probably occupied by relatives who had no role in the attacks?

And why the houses of the nine other militants which were probably occupied only by their relatives? According to the Indian Express, one was an 18-year old who had joined militancy six months ago, and another was one who had gone to Pakistan 35 years ago. The choice of the militants seems to be completely arbitrary. This questionable Israeli tactic will not buy peace. Like Israel, such counter-productive tactics may have the country end up levelling all the houses in the Valley a la Gaza.

The Israelis are dealing with “the other” or “non-Israelis” who they have classed as their enemy. The Indian attitude cannot be the same towards its own citizens. Right through the militancy, a strong section of Kashmiri opinion has been with India. Now, as the results of last year’s Lok Sabha and state assembly elections show, there is a mood for change. This has, in part, manifested in the response to the Pahalgam attack.

So this is actually a moment to reach out to Kashmiri opinion and address their issues, a lot of which are psychological. These arise from the history of accession and the fact that they are a minority in a state which is increasingly asserting its Hindu identity. These fears have been underscored by discrimination and attacks the Kashmiris are facing across the country.

In keeping with its hardline positions, the Modi government has authored a tough line towards Kashmir since the outset. Besides authorising Operation All Out to finish militancy in 2017, the government derogated Article 370 and demoted the state to the status of a Union Territory in 2019. In the process the entire spectrum of Kashmiri opinion from the staunchly pro-Indian Abdullah family to the separatists like Engineer Rashid were placed under preventive detention.

Article 370 was an anachronistic relic, in substance it was hollow, but it gave the Kashmiris the feeling that they were special. There are similar provisions in several other states in the country based on historical reasons that provide them special status such as restrictions in sale of land or access to jobs. The removal of Article 370 was really all about a party matter for the BJP whose ideological strands come from the Jammu Praja Parishad which had opposed Article 370 in 1951.

Bludgeoning the Valley and Kashmiris is not a viable counter-terror strategy. Instead of emulating the Israelis, the government would do well to learn from the tactics of UK which ended the dangerous Irish terrorist movement that functioned between the 1960s and 1990s. After their harsh tactics failed to deliver, the British ensured that counter-terrorist actions remained within the bounds of the law and reached out politically to the Provisional Irish Republican Army. Today that terror campaign is history.

It is important for New Delhi to distinguish between separatism and terrorism in Kashmir; while it should reach out politically to the former, it should continue efforts to eliminate the latter who in most cases are Pakistani proxy warriors. By dubbing all the militancy in the Valley as “terrorism”, the Union government has only tied its own hands. By creating conditions to restore normalcy in the state is the best way to defeat Pakistan’s plans.

Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.